Dems See Narrow Path to Win Senate     01/14 06:01

   Senate Democratic leaders believe they have a path to winning the majority 
in November, though it's one with very little wiggle room.

   WASHINGTON (AP) -- Senate Democratic leaders believe they have a path to 
winning the majority in November, though it's one with very little wiggle room.

   The party got a new burst of confidence when former Rep. Mary Peltola 
announced Monday she will run for the Senate in Alaska. Her bid gives Democrats 
a critical fourth candidate with statewide recognition in states where 
Republican senators are seeking reelection this year. Nationally, Democrats 
must net four seats to edge the GOP out of the majority.

   That possibility looked all but impossible at the start of last year. And 
while the outlook has somewhat improved as 2026 begins, Democrats still almost 
certainly must sweep those four seats. First they must settle some contentious 
primaries, the mark of a party still struggling with its way forward after 
Republicans took full control of Washington in 2024. Importantly, they must 
also beat back challenges to incumbents in some of the most competitive states 
on the map.

   And though some of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's top Democratic 
Senate recruits were lauded for their statewide success in pivotal states, some 
are nearly 70 or older, hardly the key to a lasting Democratic transformation.

   Republicans doubt the chances Democrats can pull off such a task, 
considering most of the 2026 contests are in states that Donald Trump easily 
won in 2024.

   Still, independent voters have drifted in Democrats' direction over the past 
year, according to a new Gallup poll, a slight breeze at Democrats' back they 
didn't expect a year ago when there was little path at all.

   "I say it's a much wider path than the skeptics think, and a much wider path 
than it was three months ago and certainly a year ago," Schumer told The 
Associated Press Tuesday.

   4 statewide candidates in GOP-held states

   Schumer argues that Peltola, who was elected twice statewide to Alaska's 
at-large House seat, puts the typically Republican-leaning state in play as a 
potential pickup for Democrats.

   It's a development similar to other states where Schumer believes Democrats 
have recruited strong candidates: former three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio, 
former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper in North Carolina and two-term Gov. Janet Mills 
in Maine.

   But they hardly represent a quartet of guarantees. Brown, a longtime 
pro-labor progressive in increasingly GOP-leaning Ohio, and Peltola, who was 
elected during a special election in 2022, both lost reelection in 2024. Mills, 
finishing her second term as governor, faces a competitive primary challenge 
from progressive veteran and oyster farmer Graham Platner.

   None of the four had runaway popularity with voters in their states in 2024. 
Right around half of voters had somewhat or very favorable views of all of 
them, with Cooper slightly higher and Brown slightly lower, according to AP 
VoteCast, a survey of the electorate.

   Age remains another unresolved issue. After President Joe Biden, in his 
early 80s, withdrew from the 2024 race amid concerns that he was too old to 
serve, Democratic Senate leadership has not changed course. Schumer, 75, has 
recruited candidates who are older, with several top recruits -- including 
Mills and Brown -- well into their 70s.

   "Voters sent a very clear message in 2024 that they're sick of the 
gerontocracy. They're sick of Democrats putting up old candidates and that they 
want some new blood," said Lis Smith, a national Democratic strategist. "And 
some of the recruits, like in Maine, seem to completely ignore the message that 
voters sent in 2024."

   Schumer said winning back the Senate is paramount over all else.

   "It's not young versus old. It's not left versus center. It's who can best 
win in the states," he said. "So, these are all really good candidates, and I 
don't think you look at them through one narrow prism. You look at who can win."

   Primaries and party tensions

   Before Democrats can test their general-election appeal, they must navigate 
some primaries that highlight lingering divisions within the party.

   Platner, who has been endorsed by independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of 
Vermont, has demonstrated formidable fundraising for his Maine contest, despite 
controversies surrounding past social media posts and a tattoo linked to Nazi 
imagery. Some Democrats worry his insurgent appeal could be a liability in 
November if he is the nominee.

   In Michigan, Democratic Sen. Gary Peters' retirement has opened a seat in a 
state Trump carried narrowly. Republicans have unified behind former Rep. Mike 
Rogers, while Democrats face a crowded August primary after failing to recruit 
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

   Crowded or contentious primaries are also playing out in Minnesota, Texas 
and Iowa, forcing Democrats to devote resources even in states not central to 
their path to a majority.

   Sen. Chris Van Hollen is part of an informal group of Democratic senators 
known as Fight Club that has been openly critical of party leadership's 
approach to the midterms. Van Hollen said the group has objected to what it 
sees as the Senate Democrats' campaign arm -- controlled by Schumer -- "wading 
into certain Democratic primaries."

   "So, yes, we're taking a look at all of them," Van Hollen said of endorsing 
more progressive candidates.

   Republicans also like their odds

   Betsy Ankney, political director for the National Republican Senatorial 
Committee in 2020, acknowledged Democrats' desire to make the case for 
competitiveness but characterized Trump's presidential victories in Alaska and 
Ohio in 2024 -- by 13 and 11 percentage point margins, respectively -- as 
enormous hurdles.

   She said Republicans are "rightly focused, on real tangible targets in 
Georgia, in Michigan," calling them "very real pickup opportunities."

   Democrats' shot at the majority almost certainly depends on Sen. Jon Ossoff 
winning reelection in Georgia, where Trump won in 2024 by 2.2 percentage 
points, and holding Michigan, where Peters' retirement creates an open seat in 
a state Trump carried by 1.4 percentage points.

   "It's not just about where the Democrats can play. It's about where we can 
play, too," Ankney said.

   An unsettled political environment

   Despite the challenges, Democrats see reasons for optimism in the broader 
political climate.

   A new Gallup survey found 47% of U.S. adults now identify with or lean 
toward the Democrats, while 42% are Republicans or lean Republican. That gives 
Democrats the advantage in party affiliation for the first time since Trump's 
first term.

   But the data strongly suggests that independents are moving toward Democrats 
because of their souring attitude toward Trump, rather than greater goodwill 
toward Democrats. The Democratic Party's favorability is still low, and 
Gallup's analysis found that, as more Americans identify as independents, they 
tend to gravitate toward the party that is out of political power -- whether 
it's the Democrats or the Republicans.

   Still, that appears to be a dynamic in Democrats' favor, as economic unease 
creeps into the election year with little time before the feelings lock into 
voters' political thinking, veteran Republican pollster Ed Goeas said.

   "That creates an environment that will affect these Senate races," Goeas 
said, predicting House Republicans could lose their majority. He said 
Republicans are assuming the economy and the political environment are going to 
be better.

   "I think they are going to end up getting frustrated going into the summer 
because, first of all, the economy is not on all levels improving. It's going 
to be a target-rich environment for Democrats," he said.

   "It's going to be close."