OMAHA (DTN) -- This week, the 2026 DTN Digital Yield Tour predicts mixed outcomes for South Dakota. While statewide corn yield estimates fell nearly 10 bushels per acre (bpa) from 2025, soybean yield estimates were up more than a bushel. Tour estimates for both crops in 2026 exceed USDA's Risk Management Agency five-year averages.

While cautiously optimistic, some South Dakota farmers foresee an average crop due to narrow pockets of rain across the state and drought conditions.

CORN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2026: 159.9 bushels per acre (bpa)

-- DTN 2025: 169.2 bpa

-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 158.8 bpa

SOYBEAN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2026: 45.1 bpa

-- DTN 2025: 43.8 bpa

-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 44.9 bpa

While the DTN Digital Yield Tour is in its ninth season, this is the third year that employs DTN's proprietary crop yield models. The tour estimates reported here are based on yield models as of Aug. 1. The models update every two weeks and do not incorporate weather forecasts.

For more about how those models work and what makes them unique, please see: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Results for all states covered by the tour can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Updated yield model results will be shared in early September on DTN's online products. You can view a Reporter's Notebook that previewed the Digital Yield Tour at https://www.dtnpf.com/…. On Aug. 14, you can find the post-tour Reporter's Notebook video at https://www.dtnpf.com/…. Also, later in August you can hear a Field Posts Podcast about the tour results at https://www.dtnpf.com/….

WEATHER COMMENTARY

DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick said that it's been a somewhat rough growing season for South Dakota this year. Winter snowfall was very limited, and soil moisture to begin the season was poor.

"It allowed folks to get to planting early if they wanted, but lots of ups and downs in the temperatures in the spring led to wider planting windows," he noted.

Drought has been a constant feature in the southeastern corner of the state and has generally been an issue across the south most of the season so far. Northern areas have had decreasing amounts of rainfall events and soil moisture through July, and drought has grown there over the past month.

"But a late-July rainfall event helped to bring a lot of needed moisture to the state," Baranick said. "Heat became a big problem in July, and many days up near and above 100 degrees were more common than not, leading to a lot of stress during the critical pollination period for corn."

Western areas of South Dakota fared much worse in the heat department, but heat also was a major issue east of the Missouri River, he added.

MARKET COMMENTARY

South Dakota has not escaped the dryness that has plagued the Northern Plains for much of the growing season, said DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery. While drought conditions had eased somewhat in portions of the state during late June and early July, they built back in during the second half of July to encompass more than 75% of the state.

"It is, in turn, no surprise that good-to-excellent crop scores are 30 points lower in early August as compared to a year ago, with the DTN Digital Yield Tour forecasting 9.3 bpa lower than last year," he said. However, the yield estimate is still ahead of the previous five-year average. This may prove to be an optimistic outlook unless August rainfall can minimize the drought damage, he noted.

For soybeans, the 2026 DTN yield tour forecast for South Dakota would be marginally higher than the state's previous five-year RMA average. It's also higher than the initial forecast during last year's tour, Montgomery said.

"While recent crop conditions in 2026 are a full 20 points lower in good-to-excellent ratings as compared to a year ago, they are just slightly lower than the five-year average for South Dakota in early August," he said. "This suggests that soybean productivity in South Dakota may be increasingly 'regional' in 2026, with the production-dense northeast receiving more rainfall through the growing season relative to areas to the south and west."

OBSERVATIONS

-- Brandon Wipf, Huron, Beadle County:

East-central farmer Brandon Wipf remains cautiously optimistic for corn and soybean yield potential. Excessive moisture through winter and spring gave planting a boost for the Huron farmer; however, missed rains in July, in addition to the heat, hurt the corn a bit.

"I still think there's decent potential out there, but it's going to be hard to say what that is until harvest," he said.

Some rain in early August was nice, but Wipf said they could use more. Soybeans could be "really good" if more rain in August came to fruition.

July's dry spell could have caused some corn damage, up to 50 bpa, he said, but he's still predicting an average or slightly above average crop, at 180 bpa or so.

"I'm trying not to be too optimistic, but I think that's roughly where we'll end up," Wipf acknowledged.

Going into August, more precipitation is needed. "It's really just the moisture at this point," he said.

-- J.D. Wangsness, Miller, Hand County:

Rains weren't timely enough this summer for some South Dakota farmers.

Central South Dakota farmer and rancher J.D. Wangsness said his corn crop has suffered from lack of moisture, but his soybeans are "tough little nuggets" that have withstood the heat. Even with only 8 inches of rain in June, a narrow band, the beans have held up well.

Going into August, Wangsness had concerns for continued heat, hoping that some rain will help the beans flower.

"We're going to need some August rains to get the beans going. They were about to flower, but they need another shot," he said.

Corn fields are hanging in after pollination. He's targeting 165 bpa on corn. With higher fertilizer prices in the spring, Wangsness shied away from application.

This upcoming harvest may be the end of a three-year "phenomenal" streak he's had, but that's not as devastating as 2022, when his fields took major hail damage.

"At least I got a crop," he said. "If we don't get any significant rain, we could have a considerable yield decrease."

Some farmers with stressed or failing corn fields may choose to chop their corn for silage rather than let it go for grain, salvaging the crop as cattle feed. Wangsness said this could have two market effects: cheaper silage prices or higher corn grain prices with less corn making it to harvest.

"It won't be a runway year by any means, but we can't complain," he said.

-- Tanner Hento, Avon, Bon Homme County:

This summer has been a hard pill to swallow for Bon Homme County farmer Tanner Hento, who raises corn and soybeans in Avon. Hitting record corn and soybean yields last year, he said this tough year makes him see that record-high achievement from a different perspective.

"It hurts not having the crop that we would like this year, but it makes you appreciate even more the good years," Hento said. "There's always a lesson."

Hento expects average yields on his farm, mostly because of a dry July. But his beans may still have a chance.

"Even hitting 50 bushels per acre would be a success," he said.

Because of last year's record harvest, ethanol plants and elevators were over capacity, basis was weak and some plants shut down temporarily, Hento added.

"This year's lower supply, while painful, could help stabilize corn prices and basis," he added.

Like many other South Dakota farmers, July's dryness makes them hope for more rain ahead of harvest. While extremely dry conditions haven't exactly touched his crops, Hento said farmers are prone to cutting for silage during drought years because the yield isn't there.

"They're better off turning it into silage, and more than anything, more acres are going to go to silage because the corn isn't tall," he said. "It'll probably take five acres of corn this year to compare to one acre of corn last year for the volume of silage. Our county is going to lose some corn production to silage."

-- Matt Eich, manager at FIRST:

Throughout the season, field managers for Farmers' Independent Research of Seed Technologies (FIRST) coordinate unbiased, head-to-head field trials for commercial corn and soybean seed products.

Connecting with farmers in the Brookings to Huron areas in northeast South Dakota, Eich said yield potential is a mixed bag.

"The vast majority of July was very dry," Eich said. "The southern half (of South Dakota) and south of I-90, it's been poor, in spots."

Within the last 10 days or so, Eich has heard in the Mitchell, South Dakota, area that farmers have been cutting for silage just to preserve what was left of the corn crop.

"I would assume the farmers who are cutting silage will use it to feed their own livestock," he said. "Strictly grain farmers might be riding the crop out, unless they have an agreement with a neighbor for silage."

Among the farmers with whom he connects, Eich said most expect average yield potential.

"Some were fortunate to catch a couple rains in July, but at this point, my general feeling is average (yields)," he said.

Minus the water, Eich said it's been decent growing conditions for soybeans, allowing the beans to hold on for a chance at that much-needed shower.

Susan Payne can be reached at susan.payne@dtn.com

Follow her on social platform X @jpus

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